To determine when we have the potential to expand beyond the moon and Earth, researchers created a foundational model that predicts the earliest possible launch dates for human-crewed missions from space to select destinations in the solar system.
In a study published on arXiv, researchers from the United States, China and the Netherlands predicted the reasonable dates when humanity will succeed in exploring new planets in the solar system.
The analysis provides a projected timeline for manned missions beyond Mars based on a combination of linear and exponential relationships resulting in an equation that can be solved by connecting the distance and time data points from the start of the space race. The former is defined as the distance humans have traveled from Earth and the latter as the start of the space race in 1957, when no human had left Earth.
Another critical fact taken into account is when humans landed on the moon in 1969, at a distance of 384,400 kilometers. The next step in exploration is still speculative at this point, but the authors have set out two different scenarios for when humanity reaches Mars.
Given launch forecasts, the first humans are estimated to objectively set foot on the red planet in 2038, which is when the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Artemis program plans to do so. But experts also acknowledge that due to the history of delays in the human space exploration program in recent times, it could be as long as 2048.
Other factors taken into account in the analysis are based on NASA’s historical budget trend and the overall development of deep space exploration research. Using NASA’s budget as a variable in the equation unlocks a relatively simple linear relationship between time and a budget not adjusted for inflation.
Although using NASA’s budget would be relatively limited, since the agency only represents one country, even if that country has the largest space program in the world, it can act as a proxy for space exploration funding in general despite that the private sector has been gaining ground in recent years.
Technological progress is the most difficult to quantify, since deep space missions are based on the design, manufacture and operation of hardware complex and life support systems.
To do this, the authors rely on a model of the number of articles published in a given year that mention deep space exploration as an indicator of the level of technology needed to complete those missions. The relationship they found for that metric of the number of articles over time is exponential, peaking at about two thousand articles per year recently.
The model assigns the year 2073 for a manned mission to the asteroid belt, 2103 for humans to visit Jupiter and its satellites, and 2132 for a mission to Saturn. Although there are some significant potential differences based on the uncertainty of the planned landing on Mars, the general trend is one of exponential exploration, provided the current level of technological progress and budget levels continue.